{
  "checkedDate": "2026-09-27",
  "title": "Good decision, bad outcome",
  "originalStudy": {
    "authors": "Jonathan Baron and John C. Hershey",
    "year": 1988,
    "title": "Outcome Bias in Decision Evaluation",
    "url": "https://bear.warrington.ufl.edu/brenner/mar7588/Papers/baron-hershey-jpsp1988.pdf",
    "doi": "10.1037/0022-3514.54.4.569",
    "scope": "Five experiments; outcomes affected evaluations of decisions made under uncertainty. Outcomes can also provide useful information for later decisions."
  },
  "replication": {
    "authors": "Aiyer, Kam, Ng, Young, Shi and Feldman",
    "year": 2023,
    "title": "Outcomes Affect Evaluations of Decision Quality: Replication and Extensions of Baron and Hershey’s (1988) Outcome Bias Experiment 1",
    "url": "https://rips-irsp.com/articles/10.5334/irsp.751",
    "doi": "10.5334/irsp.751",
    "table": "Table 5, Evaluation row",
    "sampleSize": 692,
    "scale": {"min": -3, "max": 3},
    "design": "Preregistered between-participants experiment. Online MTurk sample recruited using CloudResearch. One hypothetical medical scenario, with outcome and decision-maker varied.",
    "rows": [
      {"role": "Physician made the decision", "success": {"mean": 1.81, "sd": 0.84, "n": 173}, "failure": {"mean": 0.45, "sd": 1.55, "n": 172}},
      {"role": "Patient made the decision", "success": {"mean": 1.76, "sd": 0.79, "n": 171}, "failure": {"mean": 0.90, "sd": 1.36, "n": 176}}
    ],
    "limits": "Separate groups, not a before-and-after measure of the same people. Reported means and standard deviations, not percentages or probabilities. No outcome-unknown baseline. A single hypothetical scenario does not estimate how often people show the effect in everyday life or while playing games."
  },
  "illustration": {
    "kind": "Authored teaching model, not observed delivery data or a psychological test",
    "objective": "Maximize the chance that one parcel arrives by the deadline",
    "assumptions": "Only two choices; equal price and all other relevant consequences; stated probabilities are known and fixed",
    "options": [{"id": "a", "name": "Courier A", "onTimePercent": 75}, {"id": "b", "name": "Courier B", "onTimePercent": 50}],
    "interaction": "The reader selects a courier and then selects an illustrative outcome. No random sampling or personal scoring occurs. Choosing an ending does not change the original probabilities."
  },
  "editorialTools": "The decision/outcome matrix and review prompts are original teaching aids, not validated interventions or measures of a person's decision-making ability."
}